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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2012)05-0141-07 |
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基于事件研究的政策效应测算
--以吉林省农业国内支持政策对农村内需的拉动效应为实证 |
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王洪会，何彦林 |
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（长春理工大学经济管理学院，吉林长春，130022） |
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| 摘 要： 经济政策对实际经济能产生复杂的动态效果，可以通过分析此政策的短期总效应以及长期的自发效应来研究和度量，前者通过测量受政策影响的经济变量超出预期趋势的变化来衡量，后者则通过政策作用于经济的传导机制及其表现来研究政策的某些独立效应，从而估计或者测算某现实政策的长期效应。借鉴事件研究的基本思想，可以建立一种经济政策效应测算的新方法。通过政策（事件）的实际实施来决定效应测算研究的时间起始点，并排除其他事件的干扰，重视“政策”与“统计数据变化”之间的因果联系，因此，该方法适于对政策效应进行事前评估和事后检验。正文建立了相关理论模型，并采用此方法实证分析了吉林省国农业内支持政策对农村内需的拉动效应。 |
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| 关键词： 政策效应；事件研究；测算；农村内需；计量模型；减税政策 |
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A Method for the Policy Effect Estimating Based on Event Study
--An Empirical Test of the Domestic Demand Effect of Support Policies for Rural Areas in Jilin Province |
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WANG Honghui, HE Yanlin |
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（Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun 130022, China） |
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| Abstract: There are many complex dynamic effects on real economy from a policy which is being implemented or has been implemented, but we can study it through the estimating of short-term total effects and long-term autonomous effects. Firstly, using the changes of economic variables we measure its short-term total effects. Secondly we analyze the transmission mechanism and performance of economic variables with relate policy, and get some independent effects of a certain policy for long-term study. This paper establishes an economic method to measure the effects of economic policy by learning the basic idea of event study. Except for the using of event study method in practice, this paper emphasizes the casual relationship between “policy” and “changing of statistic data”, so it would be appropriate for prior evaluation or after estimation of a policy. This paper makes a model, with which we empirically estimate the domestic demand effect of support policies for rural areas in Jilin province. |
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Key words: Policy effect; Event study; Estimation; Rural domestic demand; Econometric model; Tax reduction policy |
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