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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2023)04-0085-15 |
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中国各行业受经济冲击影响的异质性及其根源——基于行业接触程度视角的检验 |
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李晓萍1，赵雪1，陈强远2 |
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（1. 中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410017；
2. 中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院，北京，100086） |
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| 摘 要： 2019年年末爆发的重大公共卫生事件对我国经济造成了严重冲击，而不同行业受此经济冲击影响的程度存在差异。随着此次经济冲击的持续及其逐渐消退，不同行业回暖的程度也存在着非常显著的差异。由此引发思考：为何不同行业受经济冲击影响的程度存在差异？其背后根源及其影响的理论机制是什么？对此问题的回答有助于挖掘不同行业受经济冲击影响的根源，以期对不同行业进行精准施策以助力中国经济高质量发展。鉴于此，从行业接触程度这一视角出发，采用2020年1月—2021年5月中国南方电网数据中分行业月用电量这一独特数据集，对不同行业受此次经济冲击影响的程度及其差异性进行实证检验，并结合行业自动化水平的异质性检验其对行业接触程度的调节效应。研究发现：行业接触程度异质性是经济冲击背景下行业受影响程度差异化的主要原因，且高接触行业更容易受到经济冲击的负面影响；提升行业自动化水平有利于减少人员流动和面对面接触，从而使得高接触行业的生产和服务能力在经济冲击时期能够得到较快的恢复。基于行业接触程度异质性解析中国各行业受经济冲击影响出现差异的根源，为推动自动化技术革命提供一定的证据支持，并为经济回暖时期中国持续推进经济高质量发展提供有益借鉴。 |
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| 关键词： 行业接触程度；行业自动化水平；经济冲击；差异化影响 |
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Heterogeneity and its root causes of economic shock on various industries in China: An examination based on the perspective of industry contact level |
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LI Xiaoping1, ZHAO Xue1, CHEN Qiangyuan2 |
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（1.School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410017, China;
2. National Academy of Development and strategy, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100086, China） |
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| Abstract: The major public health events that broke out at the end of 2019 had a serious impact on China's economy economy, and the degree of impact of this economic impact varies among different industries. As the economic shock continued and gradually subsided, there were also significant differences in the extent to which different industries recovered. This arouses some questions: why do different industries experience varying degrees of economic shock? And what is the theoretical mechanism behind its root cause and impact? Answers to the questions are of help to disclose the root causes of the influences of economic shock on various industries in the hope of accurately implementing strategies to boost China's high-quality development in economy. In this regard, this study, starting from the neglected perspective of industry contact intensity and employing a unique dataset of monthly electricity consumption by industry in China Southern Power Grid from January 2020 to May 2021, empirically investigates the degree of impact and heterogeneity of different industries in response to the major public health event, and combines it with the heterogeneity of industry automation levels to test their moderating effects on industry contact intensity. The study finds that heterogeneity in industry contact intensity is the main reason for the differential impact of industries under economic shock, and high-contact industries are more likely to be negatively affected by economic shock, and that improving industry automation levels can help alleviate the impact of personnel mobility and face-to-face contact, thereby enabling high-contact industries to recover their production and service capabilities more quickly during economic shock. This study analyzes the roots of the differential impact of China's various industries under economic shock from the perspective of industry contact intensity heterogeneity, hence providing evidences and support for promoting the intelligent technology revolution and offering useful ideas for reference to promote China's sustained high-quality economic development during the economic recovery period. |
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Key words: industry-contact degree; industry automation level; economic shock; differentiation impact |
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