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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2022)03-0068-14 |
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基于产业复杂网络的中国隐含钴消费结构特征及关键路径研究 |
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朱学红1,3，刘瑾睿1，曾安琪2,3，谌金宇1,3 |
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（1. 中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410083；
2. 中南大学马克思主义学院，湖南长沙，410083；
3. 中南大学金属资源战略研究院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 为增强中国钴资源相关产业链的安全性、协同性和高效性，全面解析我国产业间钴消费的特征及演变规律，构建中国2007年和2017年环境拓展投入产出表，核算产业间隐含钴消费量，在此基础上建立2007年和2017年中国隐含钴消费产业关联网络(ECIN)。结果表明，2017年中国隐含钴消费结构较2007年更加紧密，呈现出向部分战略性新兴产业集聚的趋势；电池部门的关键性大幅提高，占据了ECIN中40%的钴输出；关键隐含钴消费路径由建筑业需求驱动转变为交通运输和消费电子品行业需求驱动，且二者所引致的关键路径贡献率分别为13.9%和10.1%。建议针对钴产业链不同部门采取差异化措施，尽量防范和化解核心部门可能的钴供给短缺问题，同时采取联动措施加强对关键路径上各部门的协同管理。 |
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| 关键词： 隐含钴消费；产业网络；主导部门；关键消费路径 |
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Analysis of China’s embodied cobalt consumption structure characteristics and key paths based on industrial complex networks |
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ZHU Xuehong1,2, LIU Jinrui1, ZENG Anqi2,3, CHEN Jinyu1,3 |
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（1. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Institute of Marxism, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
3. Metal Resources Strategic Research Institute, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: To enhance the safety, synergy and efficiency of the industrial chain related to cobalt in China, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and evolution pattern of inter-industry cobalt consumption in China, constructs China’s environmental expansion input-output tables in 2007 and 2017, calculates the embodied intersectoral cobalt consumption, and based on this, establishes the embodied cobalt consumption industrial networks (ECIN) in 2007 and 2017 The results show that the structure of ECIN in 2017 was tighter than that in 2007, showing a trend of concentration toward some strategic emerging industries, that the criticality of the battery sector has increased significantly, accounting for 40% of the cobalt output in ECIN, and that key consumption paths changed from demand-driven by the construction industry to demand-driven by the transportation and consumer electronics sectors, and the contribution caused by these two key paths were 13.9% and 10.1%, respectively. It is suggested that differentiated measures should be taken for different sectors to prevent and resolve possible cobalt supply shortages, and at the same time comprehensive measures need to be taken to strengthen the synergistic management of various sectors on the key paths. |
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Key words: embodied cobalt consumption; industrial complex network; dominant sectors; key consumption paths |
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