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中南大学学报(社会科学版)
ZHONGNAN DAXUE XUEBAO(SHEHUI KEXUE BAN)

2019年07月第25卷第4期
   
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文章编号:1672-3104(2019)04-0100-08
 
省际人口迁移对我国各省经济增长的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证研究
 
陈蓉
 
(上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心(上海市医学科学技术情报研究所),上海,200040)
 
摘  要: 在探析我国人口迁移的特征与规律的基础上,基于2000—2017年全国31个省、自治区、直辖市的数据,构建省级面板数据模型,考察跨省人口迁移对整体宏观经济及各省经济增长的影响。结果发现:人口迁移具有明显的方向偏好性和年龄选择性,大规模的、以劳动力为主体的人口从欠发达省份向发达省份迁移集聚;省际人口迁移整体上促进了我国宏观经济增长,但对不同省份的效应有所差别,对人口净迁入省份大多具有显著的正效应,对中西部人口净流失省份,或仅有微弱的正效应,或呈现不显著的负效应,或已具有显著的负效应。
 
关键词: 跨省人口迁移;经济增长;省级面板数据模型
 
 
Impact of migration on the economic growth of China 's provinces:An empirical study based on provincial panel data
 
CHEN Rong
 
(Shanghai Research Center of Sanitation and Health Development, Shanghai Institute of Medical Science and Technology Information, Shanghai 200040, China)
 
Abstract: The present study constructs a provincial panel data model and investigates the impact of the large-scale inter-provincial migration on the overall and provincial economic growth in China, based on exploration of the characteristics and rules of migration as well as the data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 2000 to 2017. The findings show that inter-provincial migration has obvious direction preference and age selectivity, that large-scale, labor-based people migrate from the less developed regions to the more developed regions, and that inter-provincial migration has promoted China's overall economic growth, but the effects are distinct among the provinces. The study also shows that for the provinces with tremendous in-flow of people, in-migration has played a significant positive effect on local economic growth. However, the negative effect on economy of the provinces with large-scale outward migration in Central and Western China has come out.
 
Key words: inter-provincial migration; economic growth; provincial panel data model
 
 
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