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中南大学学报(社会科学版)
ZHONGNAN DAXUE XUEBAO(SHEHUI KEXUE BAN)

2018年09月第24卷第5期
   
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文章编号:1672-3104(2018)05-0094-13
 
不完全契约视角下养老地产发展模式转型的演化博弈分析
 
傅沂,欧阳熹薇
 
(中南大学商学院,湖南长沙,410083)
 
摘  要: 我国正在加速进入老龄化社会,导致养老地产的发展备受社会各界关注。但是,由于其开发运营过程的特殊性,其发展模式充满了不完全契约性。基于上述认识,运用不完全契约理论分析养老地产发展模式不完全契约性的成因,发现影响养老地产发展模式转型的关键因素,并运用演化博弈和MATLAB数值模拟相结合的方法对这些因素的合理性进行了验证。研究结果显示:开发运营周期的长期性、参与主体的有限理性和开发运营契约的复杂性是导致其不完全契约性的最重要的原因。因此,应该以提升开发运营主体的长期风险防范能力为未来养老地产转型的前提,以各主体清晰的角色定位为转型的保障,以服务的标准化建设为关键,推动养老地产行业的可持续发展。
 
关键词: 演化博弈;养老地产;不完全契约理论;发展模式;转型;影响因素
 
 
Analysis of the evolutionary game of the transformation in endowment real estate developing model from the perspective of incomplete contracting theory
 
FU Yi, OU YANG Xiwei
 
(School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)
 
Abstract: As China accelerates into an aging society, it has also caused the development of endowment real estate to be  concerned by all walks of life. However, due to the peculiar characteristics in its development and operation, its developing model is full of incomplete contracts. Based on the above understandings, the present essay, by adopting incomplete contracting theory, analyzes the causes of the incomplete contractual nature of the developing model of endowment real estate, finds out the key factors which influence the transformation of the developing model, and undertakes an empirical study on the rationality of the factors by combining both evolutionary game and Matlab simulation. Results show that the long-term character of the development and operation cycle, the limited rationality of the participants, and the complexity of the development and operation contract are the most important causes of incomplete contractuality. Therefore, the transformation of future endowment real estate should be based on the premise that a long-term risk prevention capability of development and operation entity is enhanced, that the role of each subject is clearly defined as the guarantee of transformation, and that services should be standardized as the key. All these together will promote the sustainable development of endowment real estate.
 
Key words: evolutionary game; endowment real estate; incomplete contracting; development patterns; transformation; influence factor
 
 
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