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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2015)01-0059-07 |
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对积极的一般预防论中量刑基准的反思及其启示 |
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李冠煜 |
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（华中师范大学法学院，湖北武汉，430079） |
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| 摘 要： 刑罚目的与量刑基准关系密切，量刑时必须考虑预防犯罪的目的。积极的一般预防论在目的刑论中占据着重要地位，它试图从提升公民的法律信仰、发扬公众的守法精神、强化一般人的法律忠诚信念的角度正面论证一般预防的积极效果。但是，它所提倡的量刑基准可能不利于实现预防效果，无助于提供清晰的刑罚限度，导致处罚的扩大化和严厉化。通过反思积极的一般预防论中量刑基准的缺陷，可以给我国刑法理论带来深刻的启示。 |
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| 关键词： 积极的一般预防；消极的一般预防；特别预防；责任；量刑基准 |
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Hedging foreign exchange through regime-switchingdynamic Copula model |
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TANG Tao, XIE Chi |
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（College of Business Management, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China） |
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| Abstract: Ever since the foreign currency exchange rate system reform in 2005, the indeterminacy of RMB exchange rate and the foreign exchange risk have greatly increased. Hence, it is immediately imperative to strengthen foreign exchange risk management. Considering that hedge by using foreign currency futures contracts is an important means of managing the foreign exchange risk, we can develop a hedging model based on regime-switching dynamic Copula model to manage the foreign exchange risk. Firstly, we can describe the spot and futures marginal distributions of EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and CAD by using GJR-t model. Secondly, we can introduce regime-switching dynamic Copula model to tell the dependence between the spots and futures of EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD and CAD. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted between regime-switching dynamic Copula model and OLS, DCC GARCH, DCC Gaussian Copula model. The empirical results show that the regime switching dynamic Copula model is superior to other models in the effect of hedging, and that hedging can mitigate the foreign exchange risk effectively. |
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Key words: hedging; exchange rates risk; regime switching; dynamic Copula model |
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