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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2013)01-0018-06 |
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氧化铝行业风险评估预测的系统动力学模型 |
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成琼文，王皓，宋娟 |
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（中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 作为国民经济的重要基础性产业，氧化铝行业近年来在国内外复杂的经济形势下面临的行业风险越来越严峻。基于系统论视角，通过对氧化铝行业及其风险的深入考察，分析和探讨了氧化铝行业风险的概念与特征；从氧化铝行业风险的结构出发，绘制了氧化铝行业风险因素间的因果关系图和系统动力学图，构建了包括资源风险子系统、成本风险子系统、销售风险子系统以及环境风险子系统的氧化铝行业风险评估预测的系统动力学模型，模拟出了氧化铝行业风险产生和运行的机理，在此基础上构建了包括4个维度的氧化铝行业风险评估指标体系，为氧化铝行业风险管理的进一步研究和行业监管政策的制定提供了一种可行的方法。 |
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| 关键词： 氧化铝行业；风险评估；系统动力学模型 |
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System Dynamic Model for Risk Evaluation of Aluminum Industry |
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CHENG Qiongwen, WANG Hao, SONG Juan |
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（Business School of Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: As an important basic industry of the national economy, the risk of alumina industry is more and more severe under the complex economic situation in recent years. Based on perspective of system theory, through the alumina industry and investigation of its risk further, this paper analyse and discusses the alumina industry risk concept and characteristic. From the alumina industry based on the structure of the risk, the authors draw the alumina industry risk factors causal relationship between diagram and system dynamics diagram, including the resources construction risk subsystem, cost risk subsystem, sales risk subsystem and environmental risk subsystem of the alumina industry risk assessment prediction system dynamics simulation model, out of the alumina industry risk production and operation of the mechanism. Based on this constructs including the four dimensions, the authors establish the index system for risk evaluation. This paper provides an effective method for formulating regulatory policy and further study on alumina industry’s risk. |
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Key words: Alumina Industry; Risk Evaluation; System Dynamic Model |
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