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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2012)06-0044-09 |
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清代中前期人口数量及增长率的辨析与重估 |
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朱义明 |
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（南开大学经济学院，天津，300070） |
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| 摘 要： 清代的人口增长问题一直是学界颇为关注，却也观点纷杂的一个领域。一方面清代各种史料中有相对详细的人口数据记载，相对而言便于进行统计估测；但另一方面由于人丁、隐漏以及统计等各种问题交织一起，又使得该问题变得难以把握，从一些学者的研究成果上来看，整体呈现大幅波动的格局。为了能对清代人口进行有效估测，通过对历史史料的整理和逻辑分析，以乾隆四十一年的人口数据作为相对可靠的时间点，借助合理的假设与推算，估测出清代中前期人口增长率呈现单驼峰形态，并处于大约6‰~9.3‰的年增长率区间，得出清代中前期人口处于一个相对较高的持续增长过程中，并没有出现大幅波动以及人口爆炸性增长的结论。 |
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| 关键词： 清代中前期；人口数量；人口年增长率；乾隆四十一年；隐漏人口 |
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An Analysis and Estimation on Population Size and Its Growth Rate in Early and Middle Qing Dynasty |
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ZHU Yiming |
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（The School of Economics, Naikai University, TianJing, 300070, China） |
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| Abstract: Qing Dynasty’s population growth question has been quite paid attention to in the academic circle, which has been actually a viewpoint diverse and confused domain. On the one hand, each kind of historical data in Qing dynasty has the relatively detailed demographic data record. Relatively speaking, it is advantageous to estimate the statistics. On the other hand, because of the person, hidden leaks as well as the statistics and so on, each kind of question interweaves the same place and causes the Qing Dynasty population question more difficult. Lnspected from some scholar’s research results, it presents the large fluctuation. For carrying on the effective estimation to the Qing Dynasty population, we arranges and logic analysis the historical data. Taking the relatively reliable time spot by the Qianlong 41 year demographic data, with the aid of reasonable supposition and calculation, the author estimates that the growth rate of population in Qing Dynasty preliminary is about 6‰~9.3‰ yearly rate sector and presents the single camelback shape. The conclusion is that the population in Qing Dynasty preliminary is in a relatively high sustained growth process, which does not presents the large fluctuation as well as the population explosivity grow. |
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Key words: Qing Dynasty preliminary; Population quantity; Population yearly rate; Qianlong 41 year; Hidden leaks population |
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