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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2026)01-0131-13 |
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社会研究的方法转向——基于事实与反事实的整合视野 |
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吕鹏1, 2，李蒙迪1 |
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（1. 中南大学公共管理学院，湖南长沙，410075；
2. 北京大学武汉人工智能研究院，湖北武汉，430075） |
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| 摘 要： 解释社会行为是社会研究的核心议题。在智能时代，静态研究难以捕捉社会行为的动态演化特征，因而需要转向更加关注动态变化的研究模式。“事实”研究进路与“反事实”研究进路的结合，构建了四种研究模式，即从事实到事实、从事实到反事实、从反事实到事实、从反事实到反事实。四种研究模式交叉融合、灵活重组，能够突破单一分析框架的限制，形成从数据分析到假设推演、从理论构建到实践验证的全流程方法，推动知识生产从个体涌现转向无界涌现。 |
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| 关键词： 社会行为；事实；反事实；描述；因果；预测；探索 |
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The methodological turn of social research: Based on the integration of facts and counterfactuals |
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LÜ Peng1, 2, LI Mengdi1 |
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（1. School of Public Administration，Central South University, Changsha 410075, China;
2. PKU-WUHAN Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Wuhan 430075, China） |
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| Abstract: Explaining social behavior is a central concern of social research. In the era of AI (Artificial Intelligence), static approaches are insufficient to capture the dynamic and evolving characteristics of social behavior, which necessitates the adoption of research models that emphasize temporal and processual change. The integration of factual and counterfactual research approaches gives rise to four research models: fact to fact, fact to counterfactual, counterfactual to fact, and counterfactual to counterfactual. The cross-integration and flexible reorganization of these models can overcome the limitations of a single analytical framework, form a comprehensive methodological process that encompasses data analysis, hypothesis derivation, theoretical construction, and practical verification, and facilitate the emergence of knowledge that extends from individual to broader and unbounded social processes. |
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Key words: social behavior; factual; counterfactual; description; causality; prediction; exploration |
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