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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)06-0016-14 |
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新质生产力对我国人口结构变化的正向影响——基于30个省份面板数据的实证分析 |
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姚选民1，谢捷2 |
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（1. 湖南省社会科学院(湖南省人民政府发展研究中心)社会学法学研究所，湖南长沙，410003；
2. 南开大学经济学院，天津，300071） |
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| 摘 要： 通过对2011—2022年30个省级行政区的面板数据进行实证分析，发现新质生产力对中国人口结构的变化具有正向影响，具体表现为降低了老年人口抚养比、提升了整体人口质量、提高了非农劳动率。一方面，新质生产力通过技术进步、产业升级、劳动力市场再分配等途径，对我国城乡经济产生深远影响，推动生产要素的优化配置与人口流动。另一方面，城乡融合发展作为调节机制，进一步放大了新质生产力的正向效应，加速了我国人口结构正向变化的进程。 |
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| 关键词： 新质生产力；中国人口结构；人口流动；城乡融合发展 |
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The positive impact of new quality productive forces on China’s changes in population structure: An empirical analysis based on panel data of 30 provinces |
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YAO Xuanmin1, XIE Jie2 |
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（1. Institute of Sociology and Law, Hunan Academy of Social Sciences (Hunan Provincial Government Development Research Center), Changsha 410003, China;
2. School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China） |
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| Abstract: Through an empirical analysis of panel data from 30 provincial administrative regions from 2011 to 2022, it is found that new quality productivity has a positive impact on the changes in China’s population structure, specifically manifested in reducing the elderly dependency ratio, enhancing the overall population quality, and increasing the non-agricultural labor rate. On the one hand, new quality productivity exerts a profound influence on the urban and rural economy via technological progress, industrial upgrading, and labor market redistribution, promoting the optimal allocation of production factors and population mobility. On the other hand, the integrated development of urban and rural areas, as a regulatory mechanism, further amplifies the positive effects of new quality productivity, accelerating the positive changes in China’s population structure. |
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Key words: new quality productivity; China’s population structure; population mobility; integrated development of urban and rural areas |
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