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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)04-0113-15 |
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技术创新对关键矿产资源可供性的动态影响仿真模拟——以锂资源为例 |
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孙涵，陈璐，成金华，周文潇 |
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（中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院，湖北武汉，430078） |
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| 摘 要： 技术创新对提高关键矿产资源的可供性与安全水平有着重要作用。以锂资源为例，运用系统动力学方法，从供需两端探索全产业链中不同环节的5种类型的技术创新对关键矿产可供性的影响，并进一步对不同创新情景进行动态仿真模拟。研究结果显示，不同创新水平的资源勘探类技术创新对锂储量的影响差异在2031年后将逐渐扩大；开采冶炼类和二次回收类的技术创新对我国锂资源供给潜力的提升作用显著，回收带来的再生锂占比在2036年后将显著上升；资源替代类技术创新的快速发展能够一定程度上缓解锂资源供应不足的问题；当锂电池制造类技术快速发展时，在稳步发展和快速发展的开采冶炼类技术创新情境下，2045年仍将存在部分锂资源供给缺口。 |
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| 关键词： 技术创新；关键矿产；系统动力学；锂；可供性约束 |
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Simulation of dynamic impact of technological innovation on the sustainable supply of key minerals: A case study of lithium |
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SUN Han, CHEN Lu, CHENG Jinhua, ZHOU Wenxiao |
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（School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China） |
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| Abstract: Technological innovation plays an important role in improving the availability and safety of key minerals. By taking lithium mine as an example, and by adopting the approach of System Dynamics, this study explores the impacts of five types of technological innovations in different links of the whole industrial chain on the availability of key minerals from both ends of supply and demand, and further conducts dynamic simulation of different innovation scenarios. The results show that the difference in the impact of technological innovation on lithium reserves in the resource exploration category at different innovation levels will gradually expand after 2031; that the technological innovation in the mining and smelting category and secondary recycling technology has a significant effect on the enhancement of China’s lithium resource supply potential, and the percentage of recycled lithium brought by recycling will rise significantly after 2036; that the rapid development of resource substitution technology can, to a certain extent, alleviate the problem of the insufficient supply of lithium resources in the lithium resource market; and that with the rapid development of lithium battery manufacturing technology, and on the conditions of steady and rapid development of mining and smelting technology innovation, there will still be gap in lithium resource supply. |
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Key words: technological innovation; key minerals; System Dynamics; lithium; availability constraints |
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