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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)03-0138-16 |
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伴生机制下中国镓资源可持续供给和铝减排协同发展路径研究 |
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邵留国1, 2，李漪瑶1，蓝婷婷1 |
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（1. 中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410083；
2. 中南大学金属资源战略研究院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 通过分析铝-镓间的主金属生产机制、伴生金属生产机制、主伴生矿产市场联动机制，从资源、技术、市场、环境、需求等角度剖析中国镓资源可持续供给和铝减排协同发展的影响因素，并构建系统动力学仿真模型，研究不同供需情景和措施情景下中国镓资源可持续供给能力和铝减排协同发展的保障路径。当中国原铝产业不受碳排放目标约束或回收水平较高时，在既定需求情景和清洁能源发展需求情景下，中国镓资源都具有良好的可持续供给能力；反之，可持续供给能力将下降。在保障中国镓资源可持续供给的路径选择上，如果采取单项措施，提升水电铝占比最为有效；如果采取组合措施，在提高水电铝占比的同时提高粗镓提取率，最为有效。 |
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| 关键词： 战略性矿产；资源安全；伴生生产机制；碳减排；镓 |
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Research on the collaborative development path of China’s gallium resource sustainable supply and aluminum emission reduction under the mechanism of byproduct |
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SHAO Liuguo1, 2, LI Yiyao1, LAN Tingting1 |
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（1. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Institute of Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: By analyzing the main metal production mechanism, by-product metal production mechanism and main-byproduct mineral market linkage mechanism between aluminum and gallium, this paper anatomizes the influencing factors of the collaborative development of the gallium resources sustainable supply and China aluminum emission reduction from the perspectives of resources, technology, market, environment and demand, and constructs a system dynamics simulation model to study the guarantee path of collaborative development of gallium sustainable supply capacity and China aluminum emission reduction under different supply and demand scenarios and measures scenarios. When China’s primary aluminum industry is not constrained by the carbon emission target or the recycling level is high, China's gallium resource has a good sustainable supply capacity under the given demand scenario and the clean energy development demand scenario, otherwise, the sustainable supply capacity will decline. In terms of the path selection to ensure the China gallium resources sustainable supply, if a single measure is taken, it is the most effective to increase the proportion of hydropower aluminum. If a combination of measures is taken, it is most effective to increase the crude gallium extraction rate while increasing the proportion of hydropower aluminum. |
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Key words: strategic minerals; resource security; by-product production mechanism; carbon reduction; gallium |
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