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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)02-0102-15 |
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先立后破：制造业集聚能否实现经济增长与碳减排的协同发展？ |
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纪玉俊，刘俊成 |
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（中国海洋大学经济学院，山东青岛，266100） |
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| 摘 要： 以我国277个地级市为样本，利用反事实对照组探究经济系统与碳减排系统的主次关系，同时探讨制造业集聚影响经济增长与碳减排协同发展的资源错配效应和创新增长效应。研究结果表明：制造业集聚对经济增长与碳减排协同发展的影响呈倒U型，经济系统在这一过程中起着主导作用；制造业集聚可以分别通过资源错配效应和创新增长效应影响其协同效果。因此，制造业集聚规模要保持适宜性，坚持先立后破原则，在确立碳减排目标时首先要保证经济发展的稳定性，更好地促进城市经济增长与碳减排的协同发展。 |
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| 关键词： 制造业集聚；经济增长；碳减排；先立后破；协同发展 |
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Establishing first and then breaking: Can manufacturing agglomeration achieve coordinated development of economic growth and carbon reduction under the goal of “dual carbon”? |
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JI Yujun, LIU Juncheng |
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（School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China） |
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| Abstract: By taking 277 prefecture level cities in China as samples and by adopting counterfactual control groups, the article studies the primary and secondary relationships between the economic system and the carbon reduction system, and at the same time explores the resource mismatch effect and innovation growth effect of manufacturing agglomeration on the coordinated development of economic growth and carbon reduction. The research results indicate that the impact of manufacturing agglomeration on the coordinated development of economic growth and carbon reduction is inverted U-shaped, with the economic system playing a leading role in this process, and that the agglomeration of manufacturing industry can affect its synergistic effect through resource mismatch effect and innovation growth effect respectively. Therefore, the agglomeration scale of the manufacturing industry should maintain suitability, adhere to the principle of “establishing first and then breaking”, and ensure the stability of economic development when establishing carbon reduction targets, in order to better promote the collaborated development of urban economic growth and carbon reduction. |
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Key words: agglomeration of manufacturing industry; economic growth; carbon reduction; “establishing first and then breaking”; collaborated development |
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