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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)01-0123-13 |
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钴产业链全球贸易的国家地位与风险传播 |
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郭尧琦1, 2，郑茹1 |
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（1. 中南大学数学与统计学院，湖南长沙，410083；
2. 中南大学金属资源战略研究院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 随着新能源成为新的经济增长点，钴作为新能源领域的重要原材料，其供应保障问题愈发凸显。从全产业链的视角解析钴贸易的风险传播过程，提出多属性引力中心性(MAGC)算法，识别2016—2022年钴产业链的核心贸易国家，并选择SIR模型进一步刻画核心国家与边缘国家的风险传播效应。研究发现：钴产业链上中下游整体呈现以德国、中国与美国为核心的贸易格局，产业链贸易存在同质性；上游以荷兰、中国和美国为中心传播国家，各国的MAGC值整体偏小，中下游以中国、美国、德国为核心国家；当产业链面临风险时，一般在5个时间步以内恢复到风险之前的状态，下游是产业链中最脆弱的环节，核心国家仅需要2次传播就能将风险扩散给多数国家。 |
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| 关键词： 钴；产业链；核心国家；多属性引力中心性 |
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The national status and risk transmission of global trade in the cobalt industry chain |
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GUO Yaoqi1, 2, ZHENG Ru1 |
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（1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Research Institute of Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: As new energy becomes a new economic growth point, cobalt, as an important raw material in the field of new energy, has become more and more prominent in the problem of supply security. This study analyzes the cobalt trade risk propagation process from the perspective of the whole industry chain, proposes the multi-attribute gravity centrality (MAGC) algorithm to discover the core trading countries of the cobalt industry chain in 2016—2022, and chooses the SIR model to further portray the risk propagation effect of the core countries and the marginal countries. It is found that the upstream, midstream and downstream of the cobalt industry chain as a whole present a trade pattern dominated by Germany, China and the United States, and there is homogeneity in the trade of the industry chain. The upstream takes the Netherlands, China and the United States as the core countries, and the MAGC value of each country is small, while the midstream and downstream take China, the United States and Germany as the core countries. When the industrial chain encounters risks, it generally takes 5 time-steps to restore to its original state prior to the risk, and downstream is the most vulnerable link in the cobalt chain, with core countries needing only 2 propagations to spread the risk to many countries. |
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Key words: cobalt; industry chain; core countries; multi-attribute gravity centrality |
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