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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2025)01-0080-15 |
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结构性货币政策能否提振农村居民消费？——基于支农再贷款的实证分析 |
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楚尔鸣1 ，李源1 ，易雨瑶2 ，李逸飞3 |
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（1. 湘潭大学商学院，湖南湘潭，411105；
2. 湘潭大学公共管理学院，湖南湘潭，411105；
3.《管理世界》杂志社，北京，100026） |
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| 摘 要： 提振农村居民消费既是国内大循环的重要基础，又是形成消费与投资相互促进良性循环的重要支撑。从支农再贷款的视角，采用2013—2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的微观数据，研究结构性货币政策工具对农村居民消费的影响机制与作用效果。研究发现，结构性货币政策工具显著促进了农村居民的消费，支农再贷款余额每增加1%，农村居民家庭消费增加1.4%。机制分析表明，结构性货币政策主要通过需求侧缓解信贷约束和供给侧改善消费环境两个方面提振农村居民消费。异质性分析显示，结构性货币政策工具对经济不发达地区、家庭资产低、受教育程度低、有社会保障的农村居民消费的作用效果更好。进一步分析发现，支农再贷款工具可以缩小城乡居民之间的消费差距，有利于实现城乡均衡发展和共同富裕的目标。 |
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| 关键词： 结构性货币政策；支农再贷款；农村居民消费；消费差距 |
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Can structural monetary policy boost rural residents’ consumption?: An empirical analysis based on agricultural refinance loans |
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CHU Erming1, LI Yuan1, YI Yuyao2, LI Yifei3 |
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（1. School of Business, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China;
2. School of Public Administration, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China;
3. Journal of Management World, Beijing 100026, China） |
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| Abstract: Boosting rural residents’ consumption is both an important foundation for the domestic general cycle and an important support for the formation of a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment. From the perspective of agricultural refinancing, this study, by employing micro data from the 2013—2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), investigates the impact mechanism and effect of structural monetary policy tools on rural residents’ consumption. The study finds that structural monetary policy tools significantly promote the increase of rural residents’ consumption, and the rural residents’ household consumption increases by 1.4% with each 1% increase in the balance of agricultural refinance loans. Mechanism analysis shows that structural monetary policy mainly boosts rural residents’ consumption through both demand-side easing of credit constraints and supply-side improvement of the consumption environment. Heterogeneity analysis shows that structural monetary policy tools work better on the consumption of rural residents in economically underdeveloped areas, with low household assets, low education and social security. Further analysis reveals that the agricultural refinancing tool can narrow the consumption gap between urban and rural residents, which is conducive to achieving the goals of balanced urban-rural development and common prosperity. |
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Key words: structural monetary policy; agricultural refinancing; rural consumption; consumption gap |
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