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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2023)06-0104-12 |
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稀土开采总量控制政策的价格效应研究 |
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葛建平1, 2，段悦1 |
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（1. 中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院，北京，100083；
2. 中国地质大学(北京)自然资源战略发展研究院，北京，100083） |
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| 摘 要： 稀土开采总量控制政策作为解决我国稀土资源过量开采、过量出口、战略性资源消耗过快问题的基础之策，对均衡稀土市场供求关系、维护稀土产品价格和价值的统一发挥了重要作用。研究梳理了政策的发展历程，利用稀土资源价格的历史数据构建双重差分模型，定量评估稀土开采总量政策的价格效应。研究发现：稀土开采总量控制政策能够有效提升稀土国际价格，体现其经济价值；政策的价格抬升效果具有一定的持续性；稀土原料刚性需求强劲叠加政策效果带来稀土价格上涨，稀土矿产潜在供应地区将成为国际稀土资源博弈的重点地区；价格效应在两类重稀土产品(氧化镝、氧化铽)上的表现最为显著，轻稀土中镨钕类产品价格的政策敏感程度大于镧铈产品。 |
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| 关键词： 稀土；产业政策；双重差分模型；政策效果评估 |
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Study on the price effect of the total rare earth mining control policy |
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GE Jianping1, 2, DUAN Yue1 |
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（1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083;
2. Institute of Natural Resources Strategic Development, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China） |
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| Abstract: As a basic policy to solve the problems of over-exploitation, over-export and over-consumption of strategic resources in China, the policy of controlling the total amount of rare earth mining has played an important role in balancing the supply and demand of the rare earth market, and maintaining the unity of the price and value of rare earth products. In this study, the development history of the policy is reviewed, and a difference-in-difference model is constructed by using historical data on rare earth resource prices to quantitatively assess the price effect of the total rare earth mining policy. The study finds that the policy of controlling the total amount of rare earth mining can effectively improve the international price of rare earth, reflecting its economic value, that the price-lifting effect of the policy is somewhat persistent, and that the strong rigid demand for raw materials of rare earth superimposed on the effect of the policy has brought about an increase in the price of rare earths, and the potential supplier areas of rare earth minerals will become the focus of the international rare earth resource game. The study also finds that the price effect is most manifested in the two types of heavy rare earth products (dysprosium oxide, terbium oxide) on the most significant performance, light rare earths in praseodymium products prices of policy-sensitive degree than lanthanum cerium products. |
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Key words: rare earth; industrial policy; difference-in-difference model; policy effect evaluation |
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