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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2023)05-0138-10 |
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地缘政治视角下铍资源供应风险分析 |
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（1. 中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410083；
2. 中南大学金属资源战略研究院，湖南长沙，410083；
3. 中南大学数学与统计学院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 铍作为“尖端金属”，已成为世界各国资源竞争的重点，在当前地缘政治风险持续攀升的背景下，铍的安全和稳定供应成为各国重要议题。基于地缘政治视角，系统分析全球铍资源供应现状，利用2011—2020年全球铍贸易数据，构建供应风险指标，探究地缘政治视角下各国铍资源供应风险的演化趋势。研究发现：全球铍资源供应的国家集中度高，回收利用率低且难以被替代，地缘政治视角下铍资源整体供应风险高；中国、美国以及俄罗斯等国铍资源供应风险存在较大波动且处在较高风险水平，欧洲各国供应风险波动趋势较为一致。基于研究结论，建议未来供应需尽量转向分散化和多元化，建立动态预警系统和回收利用体系，为有效应对铍资源突发事件提供有力保障。 |
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| 关键词： 铍；地缘政治；供应风险 |
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Beryllium resource supply risk analysis from the geopolitical perspective |
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ZHU Xuehong1, 2, FENG Hui1, ZHANG Hongwei2, 3 |
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（1. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. Metal Resources Strategic Research Institute, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: As a “cutting-edge metal”, beryllium has become one of the main focuses of resource competition among countries around the world. Under the background of rising geopolitical risks, the safe and stable supply of beryllium has become an important issue for all countries. Based on the geopolitical perspective, this paper systematically analyzes the current situation of global beryllium resource supply. And by using the global beryllium trade data from 2011 to 2020, this paper explores the evolution trend of beryllium resource supply risk of each country under the geopolitical perspective by constructing supply risk indicators. The findings show that the overall supply risk of beryllium resources under the geopolitical perspective is high due to the high concentration of beryllium resources supply in the world, low recycling rate and its difficulty to be replaced, and that the beryllium resources supply risk in China, the United States and Russia is fluctuating and at a high risk level, while the fluctuation trend of beryllium resources supply risk in European countries is relatively consistent. Based on the above conclusions of the study, it is suggested that the future supply should be decentralised and diversified as much as possible, and that a dynamic early warning system and recycling system should be established to provide a strong guarantee for effective response to beryllium resource emergencies. |
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Key words: beryllium; geopolitics; supply risk |
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