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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2023)01-0108-15 |
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中国城市房产价格的俱乐部收敛特征及其溢出效应检验 |
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张小宇1,2，黄沁怡2 |
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（1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心，吉林长春，130012；
2. 吉林大学商学与管理学院，吉林长春，130012） |
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| 摘 要： 利用非线性时变因子模型与溢出指数模型，检验了中国35个大中城市、各俱乐部及俱乐部内成员在新建和二手住房市场的房价溢出效应。收敛性检验发现中国房地产市场存在3个收敛俱乐部和1个发散组，同一收敛俱乐部内的城市初始房价水平相近且结构特征相似，随时间推移会向各俱乐部的均值靠拢，最终趋于局部稳态。进一步的溢出效应研究发现：在全国层面，深圳、上海和南京是新建住房市场的价格“领导者”，而北京、上海、杭州和深圳则是二手住房市场的价格“领导者”；在俱乐部层面，俱乐部一在新建住房市场溢出明显，而俱乐部二在二手住房市场溢出显著；俱乐部内各城市间的溢出相对复杂；总溢出指数的变化反映出各项政策的调控效果。 |
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| 关键词： 城市房价；俱乐部收敛；溢出效应 |
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The club convergence characteristics and spillover effect test of urban real estate prices in China |
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ZHANG Xiaoyu1,2, HUANG Qinyi2 |
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（1. Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;
2. School of Business and Management, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China） |
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| Abstract: Based on the nonlinear time-varying factor model and spillover index model, the present study examines the real estate price spillover effects of 35 large and medium-sized cities, clubs and members of clubs in the new and second-hand housing markets in China. The convergence test finds that there are three convergent clubs and one divergent group in China's real estate markets. Cities within the same convergent club have similar initial real estate price levels and similar structural characteristics. As time goes by, they will approach the average value of each club and eventually tend to a local steady state. Further spillover effect study shows that Shenzhen, Shanghai and Nanjing are the price "leaders" in the newly-built housing market, while Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen are the price "leaders" in the second-hand housing market. At the club level, the spillover of Club 1 in the newly-built housing market is obvious, while the spillover of Club 2 in the second-hand housing market is prominent; The spillover between cities within the club is relatively complex, and changes in the total spillover index reflect the regulatory effects of various policies. |
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Key words: real estate price; club convergence; spillover effects |
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