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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2023)01-0066-16 |
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演化视角下大国工业化与矿产资源消费的典型事实和脱钩实证 |
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梁姗姗，杨丹辉 |
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（山西财经大学国际贸易学院，山西太原，030006；
中国社会科学院工业经济研究所，北京，100006） |
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| 摘 要： 工业化进程伴随着产业结构跃迁，矿产资源消费的总量与结构表现出较为明显的阶段性演进特征。文章从演化视角下中国、英国、美国、德国、日本五国工业化、产业结构变动与矿产资源消费的典型事实出发，将原材料库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)和Tapio脱钩理论引入资源消费领域，讨论矿产资源在工业化不同阶段中演进的长期趋势和短期脱钩规律。研究发现，在能源矿产以外的金属矿产中，主要工业国铁矿石和铜满足EKC假说，后工业化时期已经实现强脱钩。作为后发工业大国，中国金属矿产消费在达峰过程中与主要工业大国“殊途同归”，收敛到相近的终点，呈现出增长连结的脱钩状态。面对新工业革命的深入发展和大国博弈升级的世界大变局，数字化与绿色化的全球产业变革使矿产需求出现新的特点。因此，应遵循资源消费规律，持续关注工业化进程与矿产资源的消费轨迹及其脱钩状态，有效应对矿产资源领域的激烈竞争，加快推动中国经济高质量发展与矿产资源消费的“强脱钩”。 |
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| 关键词： 大国工业化；产业结构；矿产资源消费；EKC假说；Tapio脱钩理论 |
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Empirical study on typical facts and decoupling of industrialization and mineral resource consumption of great powers from the perspective of evolution |
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LIANG Shanshan, YANG Danhui |
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（School of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China; Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100006, China） |
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| Abstract: The progression of industrialization is accompanied by the transition of industrial structure, and along the way, the total amount and structure of mineral resources consumption show obvious characteristics of phased evolution. Taking the perspective of evolution, the article starts from the typical facts of industrialization, industrial structure change and mineral resource consumption in China, the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan, then introduces the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)hypothesis of raw material Kuznets curve and Tapio decoupling theory into the field of mineral resource consumption, and discusses the long-term trend and short-term real-time decoupling rules of mineral resources at different phases of industrialization. The empirical study finds that, in terms of metal minerals apart from energy minerals, iron ores and copper in major industrial countries meet the EKC hypothesis of raw material Kuznets curve, and have achieved strong decoupling in the subsequent post-industrialization period. As a great industrial power that developed fairly late, China, in its peaking process, achieved the same goal as those major industrial powers in the mineral resource consumption via different routes though, converging to a similar end point, and revealing a decoupling state of growth connection. In the face of development in depth of the new industrial revolution and the global great change of the escalating game among great powers, the global industrial transformation trend of digitization and greening has brought new characteristics to the demand for mineral resources. Therefore, we should follow the consumption rules of mineral resources, pay continuous attention to the decoupling of mineral resources between industrialization process and the consumption trajectory, cope with the fierce competition in the field of energy and mineral resources effectively, and accelerate China's high-quality economic development and the "strong decoupling" of mineral resources consumption. |
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Key words: industrialization of great powers; industrial structure; consumption of mineral resources; EKC hypothesis; Tapio decoupling theory |
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