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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2020)06-0090-13 |
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人口年龄结构变动对经常账户和经济增长的动态影响研究——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证分析 |
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齐红倩1,2，刘岩2 |
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（1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心，吉林长春，130012；2. 吉林大学商学院，吉林长春，130012） |
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| 摘 要： 采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)对我国人口年龄结构变动与经常账户和经济增长的时变关系进行动态识别，并以轻度少子化-轻度老龄化时期(2004年4季度)、深度少子化-中度老龄化时期(2010年4季度)和中度少子化-深度老龄化时期(2016年4季度)作为关键时点，刻画不同时点人口年龄结构变动对经常账户和经济增长的冲击响应。实证结果表明：我国人口年龄结构变化对经常账户、经济增长的影响具有显著的时变特征。少儿抚养比下降对经常账户的积极促进作用和对经济增长的抑制作用显著，与此同时，老年抚养比提升对经常账户的促进作用和对经济增长的抑制作用也很明显，这说明少儿抚养比下降和老年抚养比上升交织过程中造成了经常账户顺差和经济增长一定程度上的回落；三个时期对比中发现，我国人口年龄结构变化对经常账户的作用强度表现出递增的态势；在“中度少子化-深度老龄化”的现阶段，人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的作用效果仍十分明显。 |
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| 关键词： 人口年龄结构；经常账户；经济增长；TVP-VAR模型 |
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Research on the dynamic effects of changes in population age structure on current account and economic growth: Empirical analysis based on TVP-VAR model |
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QI Hongqian1,2, LIU Yan2 |
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（1. Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;
2. School of Business, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China） |
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| Abstract: By employing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto-regressive model (TVP-VAR), the paper identifies dynamically the time-varying relationship between the population age structure change and the current account and economic growth in China. And by taking the periods of Mild Low Fertility-Mild Aging (4th quarter of 2004), Deep Low Fertility - Moderate Aging (4th quarter of 2010) and Moderate Low Fertility - Deep Aging (4th quarter of 2016) as key time points, the paper depicts the impact responses of the population age structure changes on the current account and economic growth at different time points. The empirical results show that the change of population age structure has significantly time-varying characteristic impact on current account and economic growth. The decline in the child dependency ratio has a positive promotion effect on the current account and a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. At the same time, the increase of the elderly dependency ratio also plays an obvious role in promoting the current account and inhibiting the economic growth. This shows that the interweaving process of the decline in the child dependency ratio and the increase in the elderly dependency ratio has, to a certain extent, resulted in the fall of the current account surplus and economic growth. The comparison of the three periods shows that the effect of population age structure changes on the current account takes on an increasing trend, and that at the present stage of Moderate Low Fertility - Deep Aging, the effect of changes in population age structure on economic growth is still very obvious. |
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Key words: population age structure; current account; economic growth; TVP-VAR model |
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