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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2016)01-0098-08 |
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农产品期货、龙头企业发展与农业产业化 |
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孙志红1, 2，王亚青2 |
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（1. 石河子大学兵团金融发展研究中心，新疆五家渠，831300；
2. 石河子大学商学院，新疆五家渠，831300） |
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| 摘 要： 采用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型，对农业龙头企业的相关财务数据进行实证分析，实证结果表明期货市场套期保值功能能提高企业内在价值；利用耦合度模型，对龙头企业的发展与农业产业化进行实证分析，结果显示，龙头企业的发展对农业产业化有巨大的促进作用。探讨龙头企业、农业产业化和期货市场的利用效率，发现龙头企业通过期货市场进行套期保值，提高了企业内在价值，促进了农业产业化的发展。要将龙头企业、农业产业化和期货市场的效应提升一定的空间，应从政策、产业、市场和企业多维视角进行改进。 |
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| 关键词： 龙头企业；期货市场；农业产业化；灰色预测；耦合度 |
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Agricultural futures market, development of leading enterprises and agricultural industrialization |
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SUN Zhihong1, 2, WANG Yaqing2 |
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（1. Corps Financial Development Research Center of Shihezi University, Wujiaqu 831300, China;
2. Business School of Shihezi University, Wujiaqu 831300, China） |
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| Abstract: By adopting gray prediction GM (1,1) model, the present essay analyzes some relevant financial data of the agricultural leading enterprises. And the empirical results show that the hedging function of futures market can promote the intrinsic value of the enterprises. The essay also employs the coupling model to analyze the development of leading enterprises and agricultural industrialization with the results showing that the development of leading enterprises has a great promoting effect on agricultural industrialization. Discussing the utilization efficiency of leading enterprises, agricultural industrialization and futures market, we find that leading enterprises have improved the intrinsic value of the enterprise and have promoted the development of agricultural industrialization through the futures market hedging. To improve the effect of leading enterprises, agricultural industrialization and futures market, we should carry out the reform from policy, industry, market, enterprise and so on. |
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Key words: leading enterprises; futures markets; agricultural industrialization; grey prediction; coupling model |
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