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| 文章编号：1672-3104(2016)06-0117-08 |
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国外反倾销对中国纺织服装业出口贸易效应影响的实证分析 |
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LIU Aidong, YU Lu, TAN Yuanyi |
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（中南大学商学院，湖南长沙，410083） |
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| 摘 要： 运用1990—2015年纺织服装业时间序列数据，在对被诉反倾销前后产品出口竞争力进行描述性统计分析的基础上，构建了含有滞后项的动态联立方程模型；并通过GMM估计方法实证检验了中国遭遇反倾销对行业出口规模、出口国际竞争力、出口市场结构的影响，以及各变量之间相互作用下的贸易效应。研究结果表明：反倾销案件的增加将导致产业出口规模的缩减；但产品较强的国际竞争力以及出口市场分散效应带来的贸易增长，又将冲减反倾销产生的不利影响，故国外反倾销的贸易破坏效应不显著。从短期静态看，反倾销将削弱中国纺织服装产品出口竞争力；但从长期动态测算，只要应对有效，则对提升产品出口竞争力有正向影响；而国外反倾销对中国产生贸易偏转效应，又将促进产品出口市场多元化。 |
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| 关键词： 国外反倾销；纺织服装业；联立方程模型；出口贸易效应 |
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An empirical analysis of the impact of antidumping on China’s export trade of textile and apparel industry |
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LIU Aidong, YU Lu, TAN Yuanyi |
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（School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China） |
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| Abstract: Based on time-series data of the textile and apparel industry from 1990 to 2015, and using the GMM, the present essay attempts to build a model with simultaneous equations to investigate the impact on China’s export trade by foreign antidumping measures. The results show that although the increasing antidumping cases have a negative effect on reducing the export scale, the stronger international competitiveness of the products and the increase of the trade caused by dispersion effect of export market reduce the negative impact caused by antidumping. Therefore, the destroying effect of foreign antidumping trade is not remarkable. Antidumping will weaken the export competitiveness of the textile and apparel industry in China in the short term, but has positive effect on enhancing products' export competitiveness in the long run. Meanwhile, foreign antidumping actions have certain trade deflection effect, which is beneficial to achieving export market diversification. |
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Key words: foreign antidumping; textile and apparel industry; simultaneous equations model; the impacts of export trade |
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